This weekend I was requested to
write a blog post about monsoons in South Asia so I read an article titled “South
Asia monsoon seen below-average to average in 2014 - WMO” by Ratnajyoti Dutta.
This article was published on April 23, 2013 on http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/04/23/india-monsoon-idINKBN0D90IX20140423.
A monsoon is, by definition, “a seasonal prevailing wind in the region of South
and Southeast Asia, blowing from the southwest between May and September and
bringing rain or from the northeast between October and April”. This article is
specifically written about the effect that this year’s wet monsoon will have on
South Asia. As plainly stated in the title this year’s wet monsoon may have
below average rainfall due to the predicted, great strength of the El Nino weather
pattern. The strength of El Nino is determined by the temperature of the
Pacific Ocean’s surface. If the surface water of the Pacific is warm then this El
Nino will be strong and if the surface water of the Pacific is not warm then
this El Nino will be weak. This below average- average rainfall will not only
have drastic effects on India (the world’s second largest rice and sugar producer)
and its crop output. It will also take effect in other South Asian countries
including Bangladesh, Nepal, and Afghanistan.
Since the article mentioned that it is a little too early right now to determine the strength of El Nino because El Nino is in its neutral phase there isn’t any reason for a panic yet. However if the monsoon isn’t enough to water the crops in India then changes will have to be made so that the monsoons aren’t so vital to the crop output there. The effects of El Nino could also potentially create a rainy summer in the Midwest United States.
In the end, this entire issue
depends on forces out of our control like time, weather, life and death,
turning homework assignments in late. No matter what we do, El Nino could
either be strong or it could be weak. If El Nino is strong then the Indian
government will have to review a policy on grain exports adopted in 2011 during
a time when India was having an unusually large harvest. Also, South Asian
countries plan to expand their irrigated farmland by 10% by 2017. I wish the
best for India, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Afghanistan this monsoon however it ends
up and the rest of this year.