Monsoon News Too Soon

This weekend I was requested to write a blog post about monsoons in South Asia so I read an article titled “South Asia monsoon seen below-average to average in 2014 - WMO” by Ratnajyoti Dutta. This article was published on April 23, 2013 on http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/04/23/india-monsoon-idINKBN0D90IX20140423. A monsoon is, by definition, “a seasonal prevailing wind in the region of South and Southeast Asia, blowing from the southwest between May and September and bringing rain or from the northeast between October and April”. This article is specifically written about the effect that this year’s wet monsoon will have on South Asia. As plainly stated in the title this year’s wet monsoon may have below average rainfall due to the predicted, great strength of the El Nino weather pattern. The strength of El Nino is determined by the temperature of the Pacific Ocean’s surface. If the surface water of the Pacific is warm then this El Nino will be strong and if the surface water of the Pacific is not warm then this El Nino will be weak. This below average- average rainfall will not only have drastic effects on India (the world’s second largest rice and sugar producer) and its crop output. It will also take effect in other South Asian countries including Bangladesh, Nepal, and Afghanistan.

Since the article mentioned that it is a little too early right now to determine the strength of El Nino because El Nino is in its neutral phase there isn’t any reason for a panic yet. However if the monsoon isn’t enough to water the crops in India then changes will have to be made so that the monsoons aren’t so vital to the crop output there. The effects of El Nino could also potentially create a rainy summer in the Midwest United States.

In the end, this entire issue depends on forces out of our control like time, weather, life and death, turning homework assignments in late. No matter what we do, El Nino could either be strong or it could be weak. If El Nino is strong then the Indian government will have to review a policy on grain exports adopted in 2011 during a time when India was having an unusually large harvest. Also, South Asian countries plan to expand their irrigated farmland by 10% by 2017. I wish the best for India, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Afghanistan this monsoon however it ends up and the rest of this year.